Thursday, May 12, 2016

Conscious Mind

The conscious mind is such a delicate state that a bit of alcohol, drugs, or physical trauma, can alter our state of mind causing what we refer to as a blackout. Yet we choose to believe once our body has ceased living that somehow this consciousness continues on in some form - either through resurrection, spirit, a supreme presence, or reincarnation. The mind is a data processor, storage, and control system, tasked with the function of ensuring adaptation and survival. Human society has taken this mechanism and has built up illusions and distractions for the masses to ensure control and perpetuation of select organisms within this social construct. We are just organisms crawling about a floating rock, squirming around trying to do what is needed to be done to continue movement and to want to continue movement. Everything around you is fake, but we enjoy it because we are weak. We enjoy the distractions to give us a sense of satisfaction because the truth is other like organisms control and take our essential resources and we are too weak to do anything about it.

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Bad Beats

So you hit a bad beat. No, you're betting stupid. The problem isn't the luck of the world. You're betting stupid. You spent all that time building your bankroll and last night you just tossed it all away on some lineups you didn't even like in the first place. Betting stupid.

Now that we've established that the problem IS you it's time for damage control. Your sources crapped out. Your brain crapped out. You bet lazy and you bet big. And your bankroll crapped out. Get back to basics. Most nights your sources are pretty reliable. Most nights you can see the angles. Most nights you're not so lazy. So now we be SMALL.

Take a look at your bets. It's not even afternoon yet and you likely already have $100+ on the line already for tonight's match-ups. Withdrawal about half of your bets right now. Pull out of the tournament bets completely - we've already established that you're not that lucky right now, so pull out. Get back to the small 50/50 bets. Pull out of ALL high dollar 50/50 and double-up bets you just made this morning. On DraftKings you need at least 270 points in the NBA just to barely make most 50/50 and double-up contests. If you're not consistently hitting that mark lately...PULL OUT!

Keep BALANCE. Ok, so you didn't pull out of the tournament bets like I just told you to. At least establish enough 50/50 bets to cover the tournament bets you're about to lose. If you DO pull in double on your tournament bets, your 50/50's should do just fine on average. I use the 25 cent bets as a mark on the likelihood of my 50/50's pulling through...but that can be a very inefficient way to measure your night's success.

Balance your lineups! Again, this can be very wasteful, and now you're about double the risk, but sometimes a backup lineup to your "perfect" lineup is the way to go. I don't know how many times my awesome lineup has crapped out and my backup crap lineup has done awesome. Sure, most times you'll still be down for the night going about it this way, but it's less likely you'll be down huge that night...unless they both crap out, then you're screwed.

Until you have something fully reliable, bet at a MINIMUM level! Look, you're chasing the dollar. You're chasing your losses. And as a result you're betting STUPID, and you're betting, you're betting HUGE! STOP! It's better to win 80 cents tonight than it is to lose $100. BET SMALL! Bet MICROSCOPIC! Get back on a roll, start thinking again. Maybe your brain has just been off...because you're chasing the loses, chasing that high. BET MICROSCOPIC!! "OH MAN! I bet small like Uncle Tony said and my lineup did AWESOME! THAT COULD HAVE BEEN THE WIN I NEEDED TO GET BACK ON TOP!" Yeah, you got lucky. Now do EXACTLY the same setup the next night. Keep betting MICROSCOPIC until you've doubled what you have in your bankroll RIGHT NOW...or if your bankroll is EXTREMELY small, make sure you have at least $100 of THEIR money in your account now before you take the next SMALL step up in your bets. We're looking to win at least 80% of the time on our bets. Until that happens for several weeks of daily keep at that microscopic betting level until you figure out something that does. Everybody has a bad night...which is the same night somebody has their shining moment. Until you're ruling the world, BET MICROSCOPIC, and ALWAYS bet with BALANCE!

Each day is a new day. It's a new day to win, and it's a new day to lose. Right now we're looking for ok wins, and minimal losses. Good luck.

If you don't already have a DraftKings account, you can sign up here.

Now it's time to take my own advice.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Anthony Davis Gets Injured

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Anthony Davis gets injured!

I'm not sayin' "The Brow" doesn't score big points for his team, but at Davis' price his ceiling is too low and his floor arrives too frequent. Having Anthony Davis in your lineup is like going 7-2 all-in in Vegas. CAN it pay off? Sure. WILL it pay off? Sure...likely for your opponent.

Look, I like the guy. Something says to me he's an awesome dude I wish I knew, but I also like my cats...and I don't see them raking in the money for me either. (On the odd chance that the latter COULD happen, check out Dexter Cat on Facebook - after last night I could use the fame and endorsements. HE LOVES PRINGLES! EH? Eh Pringles shout-out!!!) Um...anyway...

Whenever my lineups, or my sources, end up with Davis I cringe a little. Too many times he's been pulled out with an injury. And too many times he's done average for a big man in DFS points. On a crowded night like last night, you've got too many options in front of you to rely on The Brow. If you're gonna go for it, treat it like a punt play.

Disclaimer: I know JACK about sports. And I'm a complete noob fish at DFS. I'm just tellin' how I see it.